Is the pull-back rally over?

MUMBAI: Constraining economic factors and fall of equities from all-time highs of 21,200 to recent lows of 12,514 leaves us in no doubt that we are in the midst of a bear market.

The recent rally in the market is being seen as a typical bull-run in the bear market. In just five days, the Sensex has rallied 2,366 points after which profit booking set in.

So is the short-term rally over? Economictimes.com spoke to marketmen to find out.

Chief Technical Analyst, Sandeep Waghle of Angel Stock Broking:

“Today’s (July 29) correction was event based which got discounted. It can’t be said that the rally is over. Buying can still emerge at these levels, the trend is still bullish. Top has been formed for some time at 15,200. The bottom of 12,500, which was formed some two weeks backs, will not be violated. We may see buying at 13,200-13,300 levels.”

Manas Jaiswal, Senior Technical analyst, Emkay Global Financial Services

“Nifty has already corrected 50 per cent of its recent rally from 3,790 to 4,539. If it remains below 50 per cent retracement level of 4,164, it can touch the recent low of 3,790. At a higher level, if it trades above 4,220 then the uptrend will continue and it can again come in the range of 4,350-4,400. Wednesday would be a critical day as it will decide the market trend.”
Arun Mewawalla, AVP-Alternative Research, ULJK Securities

“The recent short-term rally is over, as it was based on short-covering. We expect the market to be in consolidation phase between 4,000 and 4,500. Until July series expiry settlement, we could see volatility in the range of 4,100-4,250.”

Ram Chandran Iyer, head of institutional sales, at Kantilal Chhaganlal Securities

“The entire pull-back rally from 12,600 to 15,100 was event based, as traders covered shorts on expectations of UPA winning the vote of confidence in parliament. Soon after the survival of the government, selling emerged at 15,000 levels. Despite the fact that crude is around $123-125 per barrel, inflation is at an acceptable two-digit mark and earnings of most companies were not bad. However, investor confidence is missing. Unless foreign funds cease selling and there is renewed buying interest from domestic institutions, every rally will be sold off. Liquidity will be the main driving force for the market. We expect the market to consolidate near term. 12,600 will be a good buying opportunity to enter quality stocks with a two-three year perspective.”
Source : the economic times dt. 30 7 2008